2009 Mets Fantasy Projections
By: Josh Cohen
Last year the Mets may not have even made the playoffs, but they probably had the best fantasy core in the league. Adding the #1 closer from last year and losing no one else things aren’t going to change in Mets fantasy world this year. David Wright, Jose Reyes, and Johan all project to be top 15 picks. Beltran should go in the top 30 and K-rod will most likely be the first closer taken. Here is what I see happening from the premier Mets in fantasy baseball this year. All the draft pick projected rounds are based on standard 5×5 12 team roto style league.
David Wright (3b) $40 – David looks to secure his spot as the top 3b selected in most drafts this year. At 26 years old he is looking to still improve from previous years and will probably increase his power this year and keep around the 20 SB number. Yes he has the eye, speed, skill, power and stroke to go after 40-40 at some point in his career. This year he will still be the main driving force behind this top offense in all of the majors. Expect 35/120/110 out of him this year and for him to hit .310 with 25 bases swiped. Premier of the premier. If it is a keeper league you can consider him for #1 overall.
Jose Reyes (SS) $42 – Joseeeeee, Jose, Jose…..Let the man leadoff and do everything you want. He can single handedly put you in the top 1/3rd of your league in SB, and add some power behind it. We already saw that he added some pop with that nice 2 HR day in the Spring. Still a nice young $25 years old, lets see him fill out some more and get back over the 20 HR mark. Expect 18/75/120 as long as Manuel doesn’t move him to the 3 spot in the order. Let’s hope he keeps getting more and more disciplined at the plate and finally break the .300 BA mark (hit exactly .300 in 2006). With all of that expect him to steal over 60 bases again, and if Castillo hits behind him and is nice and patient like expected we can see him go back to 70-80. Another top 5 pick and player you can feel comfortable building a keeper league around.
Carlos Beltran (OF) $30 – Beltran should have ample opportunities to be an offensive jugernaut on this team again. He should easily reach 20-20 but that isn’t enough to get him into the first round as we saw a few years back. Wright, Reyes, Johan and now K-rod should be able to keep the attention off of Beltran which will help him succeed. He will be a top 5 OFer again this year and if you get him any later than the 3rd round you are getting a steal. In keeper leagues his value might go down because of his age but I wouldn’t worry. He is someone that can help you win and win now, 25/100/100 is easily within reach, and he should hit around .280 and swipe 20-25 bases again. If you want to reach on him take him early in the third, if he is around after that grab him up and thank everyone in the league.
Carlos Delgado (1b) $16 - DO NOT expect the same first half from last year and DO NOT expect the same second half from last year. Carlos will be in the middle of the pack when it comes to 1b this year but still should be a solid pick. He is getting older and older and his skills will continue to diminish, and if you are in a keeper league I would say to drop him a few more notches because of that. Safely look for 25/90/80 from him, and secretly hope for 30/110/90 while hitting around .265.
Johan Santana (SP) $37 – Let’s all get those early season worried about arm trouble behind us. Since they pulled him back from the trip back to NY and are not worried about fantasy players shouldn’t either. If your draft is soon then wait around and see if you can steal him. Forget all of the people and naysayers saying he did not do what the Mets brought him in for. He did it and the bullpen blew it. With CC out of the NL, he is now far and away the front runner for the NL Cy Young. He also proved last year, under the scrutiny of NY’ers, that he can go longer than 7 innings and wants the ball. Let’s hope he starts the season off the same way and with the security behind him wins 20+ games. Let’s go conservative on the predictions though…18 wins, 1.03 WHIP, 2.75 ERA, 210 K’s. If he is there near the end of round one and you want to go pitcher he is a great pick. If he sticks around to the end of the second round jump on him and don’t look back.
Francisco Rodriguez (CL) $27 – The gem of gems that the Mets could’ve hoped to get this offseason. I know I’ve said this before and I will say it a lot, the Mets had the best record in baseball if the games ended after 6 innings. K-rod is going to come in and clean up all of those games. No I don’t think he will get to 62 saves again, I would be happy with 45-50. Saves are the hardest category to predict because they have a lot to do with teams playing in close games, and with JJ Putz as the setup man we are hopefully not going to give up leads the way we have been in the past few years. The ratios and K’s are much more predictable so he will give you 2.50 ERA, 1.2 ERA, and 75+ K’s. Yes, he is a closer on one of the best teams in the NL so he will be drafted high. If you are the type of person that likes to take closers, anywhere in the 6th-8th round is a solid spot to get him. I would say if you draft him, make sure you grab JJ Putz at the end of the draft if you can just in case something happens to him, and to grab some vulture wins.
John Maine (SP) $8 – According to MLB.COM John Maine is working on bringing back his curveball. And from what I have been reading on rotoworld.com he is really working it into a lot of his game work and side sessions. What does this mean to you??? This means he will have that knockout pitch he has been missing. The misery of seeing him dominate 5-6 IP and then look and he is nearing or already at 100 pitches will hopefully be over. If he can get an out pitch instead of having the ball fouled off as much he will be a steal. Look for him to have a career year this year but only take him if you can get him at a great value. He is the type of late pitcher that can take you from the middle of the pack to the top if his curveball is what is expected. Look for around 3.75 ERA, 1.25-1.30 WHIP, 180 K’s and 15-20 wins with this awesome bullpen. Look for him to fall down to the 17th round or so. If you want him, I do not think the 14th round is a big reach but if he makes it to 17 or later consider it a steal.
Oliver Perez (SP) $6 - We missed out on the CC auction, decided Lowe wasn’t worth it, and took back Ollie. If you are a Mets fan you know how up and down he can be. If he can keep his head in the game he is a stud but if he loses focus he is a dud. This makes him another pitcher that can help lead you to victory in your league. I would take him in the 17th or 18th round and he is a steal past the 2oth round. In a roto style league you need consistency, the last thing you want to do is look deep into numbers and try to predict his bust games. Over the long haul look for low 4 ERA, WHIP around 1.35, 175 K’s and about 13-15 wins.
Carlos Beltran, Carlos Delgado, Free Agent Signing, Johan Santana, Jose Reyes, Other MLB News
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